Carbon Emissions Cap Sank with Deepwater Horizon

I've heard a lot of discussion lately that the chances of Congress passing a carbon emissions cap sank with the Deepwater Horizon, the BP oil rig that exploded and went sub-marine in the Gulf of Mexico leaving a gusher of an oil well venting into the ocean. How can this be? Well, it's important to understand the political dynamics because they are a lesson in a broken political system. Here's the logic:

Obama's opening of 167 million acres of offshore territory for oil exploration was generally seen as an attempt to secure Republican votes for a carbon emissions cap in an energy bill of some sort. It was thought that Democratic Senators from affected States would go along with the giveaway in order to get the carbon emissions cap. That is unlikely to happen any more.

Since the Deepwater Horizon disaster began, Senators Menendez (D-NJ) and Nelson (D-FL) have made clear that any bill that includes opening sites offshore from their States for oil exploration was unacceptable regardless of any carbon emissions cap. And given the warped Senate rules that require 61 votes to pretty much do anything these days, that means that such a bill isn't going anywhere.

Cut to the other side of the aisle. Republicans see offshore drilling as the non-negotiable carrot to get them to accept a carbon emissions cap. And, amazingly, Republicans from the States most affected by the Deepwater spill are most vocal in going to bat for the oil industry. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) said recently, "We've got to investigate, fine, clean up and do the research necessary to make sure this will never happen again. We have to continue to go forward." David Boehner (R-OH) is also on the bandwagon, saying, "This tragedy should remind us that America needs a real, comprehensive energy plan, like Republicans' 'all-of-the-above' strategy."

And if you figure that Democrats are likely to lose seats this November, the chances of a carbon emissions cap passing as part of an energy bill next year get even worse.

Is this system broken or what? What may become one of the nation's worst environmental and economic disasters is likely to result in our further dependence on oil and continued increase in carbon emissions.

But now it's silver lining time. There are three regional carbon emissions cap initiatives either in place or being organized. Historically, these kinds of regional efforts are stricter than Federal programs. And historically such initiatives have driven industry to press for a national standard to reduce their compliance issues. This is what happened to motivate the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act. States took the lead, industry got upset, and the Feds responded. So in the long run, we may get a better carbon emissions cap. The problem is that we've only got one planet.

Paul Birkeland lives in Seattle, WA, US, and develops Strategic Energy Management Systems for government, commercial, and industrial organizations through Integrated Renewable Energy.