Carbon Emissions and Asimov's Observation

Here's one that probably slipped your attention.

The General Aviation Manufacturers Association, together with the International Business Aviation Council and a long list of its members, recently announced a series of measures to dramatically reduce emissions of carbon dioxide.

The announcement stated that business aviation has improved fuel efficiency by 40 percent over as many years and that the community's carbon emissions represent about two percent of all aviation and .04 percent of the world's carbon emissions attributable to human activity.

Through GAMA, business aviation has pledged to achieve carbon-neutral growth and a two-percent-per-year improvement in fuel efficiency by 2020 as well as a 50 percent reduction of carbon emissions by 2050 over those in 2005. GAMA and its partners predict the reduction will be achieved mainly by technology, infrastructure and operational improvements through such programs as NextGen (an air traffic control technology that allows for more fuel efficient flight paths), alternative fuels and market-based measures that were not stipulated.

Well, okay, a 50% emissions reduction over 2005 levels by 2050 is way below the current estimate of what's required (80% reduction over 1990 levels by 2050). The path is, well, a bit vague, and, conveniently, almost doesn't require anyone to do anything. But business aviation isn't an industry that has a lot of motivation to reduce emissions, catering as they do to the mostly conservative titans of industry. So I accept their pledge as progress, and look forward to holding them to it.

This reminds me of a principle I once heard called Asimov's Observation, named after the American science fiction writer Isaac Asimov. Asimov was often asked at various sci-fi functions about why we never saw progress on technologies that would make the science fiction world a reality. Asimov would reply that we DO see progress. The problem is in our perception.

Progress tends to happen exponentially, that is, it happens at first agonizingly slowly, and is never gratifying. But over time, it accelerates, building upon itself until it exceeds even our imaginations. (See the graphic.)

The problem is that humans almost always visualize the future linearly. This means that even though progress will wildly exceed our expectations in the future, we are always disappointed in the near term. And worse, we are always resetting our starting point, always recalibrating to gage progress "now." So we are ALWAYS looking at the near term.

I think Asimov's Observation is applicable to more than just technological progress. I think it is applicable to all kinds of progress, even social progress, and even the sorry state of our emissions reduction efforts.

Progress never happens without a fight. And I don't fool myself into believing that emissions reductions will just happen. But when I get discouraged with our progress in reducing emissions, I remember Asimov's Observation. And this pledge by business aviation is a step up the curve.