Brian Kahn is a staff writer for Justmeans' climate change section. He has a Masters in climate science and policy. Prior to receiving his Masters, Brian worked in environmental education and outreach for the National Park Service and Fish and Wildlife Service. He is currently communicating climate science for the International Research Institute for Climate & Society at Columbia University....
Change at the Top of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
The big climate change news today was that Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has resigned. De Boer was head of the UNFCCC for four years and there's a lot of speculation as to why he resigned. Whatever, the reason, the international climate negotiation process finds itself at a crossroads.
There are two major ways negotiations will go from here out. The international process may revive itself after the less-than-stellar results at Copenhagen climate negotiations. Or it may die out in favor of a more regional approach.
A Big Tent Revival
De Boer helped make climate change a highlight of the global agenda. It's possible his successor will build on this positive work and light a fire under the international community to finish their talks and reach a binding agreement.
For all its flaws, the Copenhagen Accord at least acknowledges that climate change exists and puts the signers out in the public eye. If the new executive secretary uses public opinion effectively, it's possible that the nations who signed on will feel pressure to comply with their commitments. This could in turn spur them to push for a new, binding international treaty so that the economic playing field would be level.
Some fresh blood could also help renew interest. Many countries have term limits on elected officials for just this reason. While de Boer wasn't elected, it would make sense that a new person could bring a fresh perspective to the position, in the process getting governments back on track for Cancun later this year.
Separate Ways
It's also possible that the international process will peter out even with a new executive secretary. The lack of a binding of agreement at Copenhagen isn't necessarily a hiccup: it's could very well be a (near) last gasp of international climate change negotiations. Frustration, distrust, and a feeling of inequality marred the talks. Even a skilled, well-respected figure might not be able to surmount these obstacles.
The slow grind of international talks may no longer be the best venue to reduce emissions. Though it's a global problem, getting 180 countries to agree to one solution is a major challenge. There are already a number of multilateral efforts in progress to reduce emissions and facilitate technology transfer. The European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme, the G20, and a bilateral clean energy agreement between the US and China are just a few of the international actions taking place. There are also a number of efforts at the provincial and local levels.
These types of solutions might be better geared towards dealing with climate change. They are better able to address local concerns. They are also more nimble and can shore up shortcomings more quickly.
The likelihood of either of these scenarios depends in part on de Boer's successor. While the idea of a big, happy world coming together appeals to me and makes for great publicity and shiny pictures, I think the latter approach is more likely. The fractures in the international process that were always just beneath the surface and Copenhagen finally brought them to light. It also seems unlikely de Boer would leave his position if he thought an international agreement would be ready in the next year.
The UNFCCC will still play a role, albeit smaller, in the future. After Cancun, it might be time to reevaluate its role in guiding large-scale international events. This may leave small nations such as the Maldives in a precarious position as they will lose their say on the international stage. However, if the ultimate goal is to reduce emissions, facilitate the transfer of adaptation mechanisms, and stop catastrophic global warming, then letting countries work together on a lesser scale may be the best bet. Hopefully the UN can adjust to a new role and help make the process smoother than it has been to date.
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The big climate change news today was that Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has resigned. De Boer was head of the UNFCCC for four years and there's a lot of speculation as to why he resigned. Whatever, the reason, the international climate negotiation process finds itself at a crossroads.
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