China's slow but considered approach to climate change

Developing countries often get a lot of slack for not setting or even
seriously considering carbon emission targets. Observers in the rich
countries see the lack of targets as indications of no progress, no
real consideration, and no willingness to engage. We often gloat in
our 2050 carbon targets and carbon budgets, suggesting that those
pesky developing countries are holding everyone back.

Sometimes this is a legitimate point. Having clear goals is a
requisite for concerted action. And when countries such as India
suggest that they will never set a goal lower than peak US emissions
per capita, one must wonder if they are serious at all about stopping
climate change.

But recent movements in China, now being criticized for lacking
targets, appear to be setting a very strong foundation for domestic
action and leadership at Copenhagen. These are things that no rich
country can claim to have.

China is slowly but surely building social and political consensus
around why climate change occurs and what the consequences will be,
thereby building a strong base for action. Its official newspaper
reports government officials outlining that "The large amount of
greenhouse gases emitted through human activities is the main reason
for global warming leading to extreme weather events." And recent
reports (again government-sponsored) outline not just the consequences
of weather events, but also agricultural damage, public health costs,
water shortages, military security, and human displacement. This
evidence is not overlooked by the government either. An observer from
Ecofys explains that the government is signaling its
"internalis[ation] of climate change into its economic development."

There are absolutely no targets, but there are clear signs that the
government recognizes the consequences of continued high-carbon
industrialization. So for them, climate action is seen as necessary
for economic success. In the US and the UK, the governments are keen
to set long-term and ambitious targets, but certainly don't see it as
an economic imperative. Climate change is an abstract topic that
competes with all the more pressing concerns like healthcare and
short-term economic growth (the butchering of US climate legislation
makes this clear).

When world leaders sit down at Copenhagen this winter, China might be
in a very good position to discuss the problem intellectually and
constructively. Rich target-oriented countries might still be in the
clouds.