Climate Change Negotiations Has a Fresh Face to Lead

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has appointed a new Secretary. The leading candidate to replace Yvo de Boer, the outgoing Secretary, was South African tourism minister, Marthinus van Schalkwyk. However, the new leader of the UNFCCC will be Christiana Figueres, a negotiator for Costa Rica at UN climate change negotiations since 1995.

The push for Ms. Figueres came only recently and from an interesting source. Leaders from small island developing states (SIDS) urged the UN's Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to select someone from a smaller developing country rather than someone from a BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) bloc or developed country. Ms. Figueres fits that bill, though the direction she might like to take international negotiations might be a mixed bag for SIDS.

Keeping Development Clean Since 2001

On the one hand, there's a good chance she will lead international negotiations in a direction that will actually satisfy SIDS. Her main interest is climate change mitigation. SIDS support mitigation efforts very strongly. This stems from their vulnerability to sea level rise and possible loss of the very land that makes up their national territory. In fact, in Copenhagen, SIDS wanted language in the treaty stating that all parties would work to limit climate change to one degree Celsius. That means some serious mitigation.

The method Ms. Figueres seems most interested in is a part of the Kyoto Protocol known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The goal of the CDM is to get developed countries to fund clean energy projects in developing countries as a way to offset emissions. The CDM has come under a lot of criticism, though.

For one, the benefits are not spread evenly across developed countries. The majority of projects are in China and India. In addition, part of the program's mandate is to create sustainable development. However, many projects have focused on disposing industrial gases, which while important, does not address how to improve industries in developing countries to not produce as many emissions. Finally, the program has been criticized for funding projects that were likely to have gone through without any CDM funding. That means the projects haven't contributed to really reducing emissions, or additionality in UN speak.

While every program has hiccups along the way, the CDM has yet be a success at really reducing emissions. Yet Ms. Figueres is very intent on making it a large part of developing countries' climate change portfolios.

Ms. Figueres interest in the CDM also signals an interest in pursuing an agenda that still relies heavily on markets to solve climate change. This will be unlikely to please Bolivia and other socialist-leaning countries, especially in light of the climate change documents submitted by the WPCCC to the UN last week. Her connections to Latin America might help blunt this to a certain extent. However, it could be a major stumbling block if Bolivia takes issues and finds other supporters willing to join the cause.

Mitigation Matters Most?

On the other hand, her focus on mitigation shows a short-sightedness about what developing countries, including SIDS, will really need to deal with climate change. While SIDS would very much like to keep global temperatures from rising more than one degree Celsius, the political (and scientific) reality is that this is unlikely to happen. Besides, temperature increase is one of a number of the likely effects of climate change.

By focusing so intently on mitigation, important adaptations to cope with other climate change-related problems might be lost in the shuffle. Yet adaptation is an important step for developing countries to cope with climate change and build infrastructure that will actually lead to sustainable development. For example, providing SIDS with funding for building sea walls would help adapt to higher storm surges and also protect infrastructure and livelihoods, which will in turn have a positive impact on development.

Clearly Ms. Figueres will have a winding path to navigate to reach a breakthrough in climate change negotiations. Her 15 years of experience as a UNFCCC negotiator, her strong connection to developing countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the support of SIDS might help kick start climate change negotiations. However, her interest in the CDM and market-based solutions and lack of focus on adaptation might not go over well with nations hoping that the next UNFCCC Secretary would take climate change negotiations in a different, fresh direction. Either way, Ms. Figueres' work will go a long ways towards shaping the future of climate change negotiations. Whether that means a new, binding treaty or a further decline of importance of the international process will become a little clearer in six months in Cancun.

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