Do Health Industry Insiders Doubt Reforms?

I'm hopeful Congress will pass a comprehensive health care reform bill, but a survey showing that corporate players in health care remain unprepared for industry changes suggests that these hopes might be misguided.

On August 8, Congress will take a month-long break. If they fail to pass health care reforms before the recess, changes might not happen at all. Despite the short timeline - they have only 15 working days left - health care reformers continue to move forward. Committees in both the Senate and the House proposed legislation this week, and President Obama is pushing Congress to iron out the details. Many proponents of health care reform remain hopeful that the reformers will succeed.

Others are less convinced. These doubters not only include Congressinoal Republicans hoping to block reform efforts, but also seem to include executives in the health care sector. Evidence of corporate executives' skepticism comes from this month's McKinsey Quarterly. In the journal, a study by McKinsey analysts shows that only 30 percent of U.S. health care executives say their companies are ready for health care reforms.

Assuming that the McKinsey analysts surveyed a generalizable sample of American executives (since I haven't sprung for the premium membership to the Quarterly, I can't read the full article nor comment on the validity of the survey methods) I see three possible reasons for this lack of preparation.

1. Health care corporate executives think health care reform will happen, but don't think that the reforms will necessitate changes in business strategy.
2. They think reforms will happen, but can't spare resources to prepare for changes.
3. They don't think health care reform will happen at all.

The first possibility can be dismissed because the survey authors also report that over 75 percent of the same polled executives think that the impact of reforms on the industry will be "significant." Navigating these significant industry changes will require new strategies. The second possibility is likely considering the ongoing recession. Nevertheless, the claim that only 30 percent of American health care companies can spare resources to prepare for the significant impact of health care reforms inspires some doubts. This leaves possibility number three as the most likely - a realization that raises worrisome questions for health reform advocates. In particular, do the industry insiders still unprepared for health care reform know something others don't?