What's Up with the Boeing Biofuels Program?

If you need confirmation that "Peak Oil" is at the door, look no further than the Boeing Company. That's right. That stalwart US industrial power has been planning for the end of cheap oil for at least the past decade, ramping up biofuel development, forming biofuel partnerships, and conducting biofuel demonstration flights. They're serious.

But first of all some facts. Global airline traffic accounts for about 2% of global carbon emissions. That contribution has a little more of an impact than it would appear because those emissions are mostly at 35,000 feet where they stay suspended a long time, and are essentially removed from the carbon cycle. But still and all, it's not a large percentage.

The airline industry takes them seriously - or at least seems to - because so much of their business requires that they be seen as convenient and earth-friendly. Consequently, Boeing takes them seriously as well.

But that's not Boeing's largest concern. Boeing is concerned about the end of cheap oil because the fact is that while cars and trucks, and trains and ships can be made hybrid or even all-electric, we will likely never see an all-electric airplane. (In fact, so ingrained is this realization in the aviation world that the industry uses the term "all-electric airplane" to describe the replacement of pneumatic and hydraulic control systems with electric actuators, totally ignoring the gas-guzzling engines hanging out there on the wing.) Airplanes just require too much energy in too short a time to go through their various flight maneuvers. It is very difficult to discharge a battery quickly enough to deliver the power needed. It is even more difficult to find a battery light enough to hold that energy and still allow the airplane to get off the ground unless we leave the passengers in the terminal.

So emissions caps will represent a very real limit to airline operations. But it will likely be set at quite a generous level considering everyone's fascination with, and need for air travel. But Peak Oil! Ah! That's a fundamental limit. And one that undermines the fundamental assumption of air travel, that oil is cheap and will last forever. In an oil constrained world, air travel for the masses makes as much sense as using gold to build railroad tracks.

Enter biofuels.

As I've written before, biofuels will never be a one-to-one replacement for oil. The cost is too high and the efficiency of production too low. If we end up using biofuels to drive Johnny across town to his soccer match, I would be roundly surprised. But air travel! There is no other way it could be done. And Boeing sees that better than anyone else (except maybe Airbus which is a partner in many of these biofuel programs).

So if you are thinking that Peak Oil is a subject only for the Cassandras amongst us, and that there is no real need to plan for it, think again. One of the most forward thinking firms in the US is placing a multi-million dollar bet that we are entering an oil constrained world. And, say what you will about the Boeing Company, but they have seldom been wrong once they've put money on the table.

Paul Birkeland lives in Seattle, WA, US, and develops Strategic Energy Management Systems for government, commercial, and industrial organizations through Integrated Renewable Energy.