Deutsche Bank Forecasts Global Boom in Solar Industry
(3BL Media/Justmeans) – Deutsche Bank has raised its global demand forecasts for the solar industry in 2014 and 2015. It predicts that the installations of solar photovoltaic (PV) in 2014 will go up to 46 gigawatts worldwide, and jump another 25 percent to 56 gigawatts in 2015. Market analysts are forecasting greater “upside demand surprises” in the leading solar markets of U.S., China, and Japan. Taking 2012 as the base year, total global solar PV installations are expected to double by 2015.
Additional growth in the solar PV market will come from countries such as India, Mexico, South Africa and Australia. Analysts believe that the typical grid and financing challenges that have inhibited solar PV market expansion until now willbe reduced in 2014. Deutsche Bank has backed its predictions with astute analysis, citing the spread of grid parity as the most important factor that will contribute to growth.
Grid parity takes place when the cost of solar energy becomes equal to or cheaper than the retail pricing of conventional electricity. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, solar power is already competitive without subsidies in at least 19 markets around the world. As solar prices decline further in 2014, grid parity will spread to more markets. Another key factor to support the growth of solar power will be the availability of financing, which is set to improve and become more affordable from 2014.
Deutsche Bank says that U.S.-based business model of distributed generation is set to become more popular in international markets. This will act as an important catalyst of growth in the European markets where solar subsidies have been substantially curtailed. Downstream solar companies are expected to participate in this boom cycle in order to acquire new solar customers at a rapid pace.
In comparison to 2013, the solar demand in 2014 will increase from seven gigawatts to eight gigawatts in Japan, six gigawatts to eight gigawatts in the U.S., and eight gigawatts to 12 gigawatts in China.
Image Credit: Flickr via davewesterhouse
Source: Green Tech Media