Did the Electric Car Finally Get Here?

Vikrant Labde | Friday 12th March 2010

Electric car at charging station

There are only two kinds of technology predictions I trust. The first is an explicit prediction that comes from an engineer over a beer. The second is implied by something that happens in public for a different reason. I've recently read several things that implied a serious arrival of the electric car at long last. Here's what I've found.

The Nissan Leaf and the plug-in Chevy Volt, the first mass produced electric cars, are supposed to arrive at dealerships this year. They're still wrestling with prices. But they are also exploring the market dynamics.

One question is whether consumers will want to lease or buy. At least at first, you can expect to pay a premium over conventional cars. And how that will play out in the lease/buy decision will affect how the cars are received and the revenue to be expected. But there's more.

How will consumers prefer to charge their vehicles? The US Department of Energy gave $1M to eTec, based in Phoenix, AZ, to install 2,000 charging stations in California, Washington, and Oregon. The first will be online in the fall, and the last will be done in a year.

In Denmark, however, a California firm, Better Place, is setting up battery swap stations. The idea being that a consumer can simply swap a discharged battery out of their car in exchange for a fully charged one at the station. They estimate it would take about the same amount of time as filling a tank of gas. And they will get a choice of payment options. They can pay by monthly subscription, or pay by the mile.

Manufacturers are also trying to determine what exactly consumers want to buy. In the US, Nissan will be selling the car and battery as a single purchase. But in other parts of the world, Nissan is experimenting with separate purchases for the vehicle and the battery, implying separate warranties and separate service programs.

The options being put forward are interesting to consider. But what's so interesting about all this to me is that the electric car manufacturers are working out their business models. In public. Note that they are not "trying to build confidence in the technology." Nor are they "building familiarity with the consumer." No. They are working out their business models. And that's a clear sign that the electric car is finally here.

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