Decisions Under Uncertain Climate Change Conditions

Recently, I read a story about a town in Venezuela that reemerged from the depths of a reservoir after being covered for years. The church steeple is poking up from the waters due to a drought that can be blamed in part on El Nino. However, it raises a scary prospect for Venezuela's energy system if climate change dries the area out. Despite being the fifth largest oil producer in the world, Venezuela gets 70% of its electricity from hydropower.

Is it possible dams will be obsolete in Venezuela? According to the 2007 IPCC report, Venezuela is likely to be dryer in the both the dry and wet seasons. Not all climate models agree on this, though. So Venezuela (or any other country such as Costa Rica that gets a lot of its energy from hydroelectricity) has a calculated decision to make in the near future. Keep building dams at the risk of seeing their energy return diminish in a drying world or look into other energy sources. Venezuela has an enviable position in the sense that if it needed to, it could rely more on oil, though that's clearly fraught with other problems. Other countries that are resource poor might not be so lucky.

Shifts in rainfall aren't the only worry for renewables. Wind and solar could both be impacted by a changing climate, too. Unfortunately, not all climate models agree on what trends in precipitation, wind, and cloud cover (which is actually one of the most difficult thing for models predict) so any decision on what energy sources to be pursue has to be made under uncertain conditions.

Climate change requires decisions like this to be made in every sector from energy sources to agriculture to health to communication. We know trends with a fair degree or certainty but not everyone is certain enough to lead to definitive actions. Individuals, governments, and corporations need to take these uncertainties into account. It can be as simple as what I used to do when I was a little kid: making a pros and cons list. Or as complex as a cost-benefit analysis and the use of powerful statistical modeling software.

Uncertainty is not a call for inaction as climate skeptics suggest. Rather, it is a call to evolve our decision making processes and do our best to make the right choices.

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