Industrialization in 2050

By 2050 two major consequences of rapid industrialization will be readily apparent. Firstly, technological advancements that steadily increase the average lifespan of residents of industrialized countries coupled with changing preferences regarding working and raising children will mean that by 2050 there will only be two youthful and productive workers for every one 65 and older. This will create an 'aging population problem' that threatens the very concept of retirement and generates a host of extraordinary problems for governments, pensions, and public health. Secondly, the early symptoms of climate change in developed countries will create between 200m and 700m climate change refugees. This massive scale of displacement will potentially wreak havoc on political systems and stability.

Both of these phenomena are increasingly discussed and last week's Economist has articles on both. However, there are few discussions about how to temper the effects of these phenomena, partly because they are inevitable. Yet, I couldn't help but dream up a far-fetched concept for reducing the effects of both: Encourage the flow of displaced and poor to developed countries. This might kill two birds with one stone. On the one hand, a massive influx of youthful immigrants is exactly what is necessary to preserve the retirement, pension, and public health institutions in the developed countries. On the other hand, providing easy exit options to those in areas plagued by migration would alleviate some of the ethnic and political tensions that often occur. As a result, two of the biggest consequences of industrialization might be eased with one fell swoop.

However, this would in no way be simple, even if political issues are set aside. Climate change refugees are the poorest of the poor and, assuming they would want to migrate to a dangerous new world, they would also face serious practical limitations. Plane tickets do not come cheap and industrialized cities offer little welcome to the poor and illiterate. Extraordinary accommodation measures in developed countries would be necessary. However, faced with the option of working until one is 85 or spending serious amounts of money on 'importing' climate change refugees, one might reasonably choose the latter. For the refugees themselves, a plane ticket to London would offer little compensation for a destitute homeland and livelihood. However, faced with wars and famine, one might see life in the West, given sufficient incentives, as a genuine opportunity.

What do you think?