Root Causes of the Gulf Oil Spill

Well, the Coast Guard was called in to contain the Gulf oil spill within minutes. This is probably more due to a difficult-to-hide blast than anything else. Now the Navy has been called in. And the Air Force. With the oil slick approaching seriously sensitive and vital wetlands on Louisiana's coast, we should see the National Guard, and maybe even the Army called in soon. So there are chapters yet to be written on this one, and not a few surprises yet to descend upon us I'm sure. But let's put those aside for the moment and think about what the final chapter of this oil slick should, might, or will look like. And we're talking maybe 20 years here if the Exxon Valdez is any indication.

There are two critical factors in any such resolution. The first is what was the cause. The second is what are the limits of responsibility. These are linked. If the cause is shown to be a criminal one, such as the violation of the terms of a permit, then the limits of responsibility tend to be more broad. At least until BP's armies of lawyers wear down everyone seeking restitution.

Let's talk about the cause. And since Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy expert at Rice University, was quoted in the NY Times as saying deepwater oil drilling was," as technically challenging as space travel," let's turn to the space industry for guidance.

In the aerospace world, accidents are intensely investigated. They have to be. Confidence in the systems depends upon knowledge that the builders and operators learn from their mistakes.

All accidents have two causes - a 'proximate' cause, which is the immediate and obvious reason that an unplanned event happened, and a 'root' cause, which is the deeper reason. In the 1987 Space Shuttle Challenger accident for example, the proximate cause was that the "O ring" that sealed hot gasses inside the solid rocket boosters, cracked and allowed those gasses to escape and ignite the liquid fuel tanks they were next to. It turns out that the "O ring" was not designed to work at the low temperatures that Florida had seen the night before. So the search for the root cause began with the question of why the launch team decided to launch anyway. The investigation board famously determined that NASA's safety culture was "broken," and the desire to launch overrode the desire to launch safely. In short, the safety organization had been co-opted by the launch authorities, including the contractors who were pressing so hard to show good performance by launching on time. Heads rolled, and organizations and processes were changed. Not perfected. But changed for the better.

So with this Gulf oil disaster, I would be keeping my eyes open to make sure that there is a root cause being pursued from the get-go. Documents had better be secured, e-mails, faxes, and phone calls subpoenaed, and interviews done with all surviving crew. At the end, we need to determine what REALLY caused this blowout, and heads should roll, whether those are regulators' heads or corporate heads.

But a perhaps "rootier" cause is, of course, our own policies concerning oil, and our addiction to it. If this disaster fails to result in policy changes that put us in a track to break ourselves of our oil addiction, then it will be a double tragedy. We are all ultimately responsible for this oil spill. And let's not forget that. But some are more responsible than others. Those who have repeatedly blocked stricter mileage standards for autos, those who oppose carbon caps for industry, those who advocate for road building over mass transit, are the more responsible ones. We should try to address their legitimate concerns. But it's time now to brush aside their invalidated positions.

Next time I want to discuss the limits of responsibility.

Image courtesy of NASA's Earth Observatory.

Paul Birkeland lives in Seattle, WA, US, and develops Strategic Energy Management Systems for government, commercial, and industrial organizations through Integrated Renewable Energy.